Our second Sunday Night Football contest presents us with another divisional showdown. And let’s hope it’s better than last week’s dud (which we went 2-0 on, if you took the under and Cowboys -3.5).
This week, the high-flying — or fast-swimming, I guess — Miami Dolphins play their second consecutive road game against the New England Patriots, who fell to the Philadelphia Eagles in a tight season opener.
Can the Dolphins replicate their insane aerial attack against a Bill Belichick defense that bottled up the high-flying Eagles? Let’s break down this AFC East showdown.
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Miami Dolphins (-3) at New England Patriots, Total 46.5
Can Tua Tear It Up Again?
For my money, the Miami Dolphins are the most entertaining team in football. And the Dolphins put on a show against the Los Angeles Chargers in a 36-34 Week 1 victory. Tagovailoa threw for 466 yards in the win, as the Chargers had no answer for Miami’s speed, specifically Tyreek Hill’s speed. Hill caught 11 balls for 215 yards and was virtually unstoppable, while Jaylen Waddle chipped in with four receptions for 78 yards.
But Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense is going up against an entirely different animal this week. The coaching gap between Belichick and Los Angeles’ Brandon Staley is about as large as the distance between Los Angeles and Boston. However, Tua played well in last year’s season opener against New England, completing 23-of-33 passes for 270 yards and a touchdown.
The Patriots defense had plenty of answers for a Philly offense that’s equally as explosive. The Eagles averaged just 4.1 yards per play, and QB Jalen Hurts often looked confused and hesitant. Hurts threw for just 170 yards, rushed for 37 and was sacked three times while having trouble progressing off his first read.
Tagovailoa doesn’t offer nearly the mobility of Hurts. Instead, New England’s mission will be to keep Hill and Waddle in front of them at all times. To do that, the Pats will need to clog up the middle of the field and force Tua to connect on higher difficulty throws to the sidelines. The question will be whether New England can dial up some pressure against a Miami offensive line that shutout the Chargers pass rush.
Can Patriots Build Off Competitive Second Half vs. Philly?
It was a tale of two halves for New England last week. The Pats fell into an early 16-0 hole after giving up a field goal on the game’s opening drive, followed by a pick-six on their first offensive drive of the season. A fumble in their own territory by Ezekiel Elliott led to six more Philly points, then New England punted on their ensuing three drives.
The Patriots found their groove as the game went on, and had several chances to take the lead late.
Perhaps most importantly is that Mac Jones played well after his pick-six, something Patriots fans needed to see against a strong defense. Jones was forced to throw 54 times, but Jones threw for 316 yards and three scores in an encouraging performance overall.
The hiring of Bill O’Brien as OC is clearly paying off, as Jones took more command of the offense under his former coach at Alabama. Now, Jones will square off against a Dolphins defense that held Justin Herbert to 229 passing yards in last week’s shootout.
But New England might not have to rely on Jones to drop back 54 times in this game. One fascinating takeaway from Week 1 was Miami’s run defense, which was absolutely gouged by the Chargers rushing attack. Vic Fangio’s unit surrendered 233 yards on 40 carries, an average of 5.8 yards per carry. That’s something New England could certainly take advantage of with its backfield stable featuring Rhamondre Stevenson and Elliott.
Game Prediction & Best Bet
Water often finds its level in the NFL, and this feels like a great spot to back the Patriots as a home dog. The defense did a tremendous job limiting an explosive offense in Philadelphia. And most importantly, the offense was able to move the ball more successfully under O’Brien. It’s scary betting against an explosive team like Miami, as one play can blow the game open and kill the cover. But I expect the Patriots to take advantage of Miami’s weakness on the ground and limit Dolphins possessions.
Tagovailoa is interestingly 4-0 all-time against the Patriots, but he’s thrown for 202 yards or fewer in three of those four games. The Patriots are just 7-7 as a home underdog since 2003, and are 3-6 since Tom Brady left. But I was encouraged enough by New England’s Week 1 effort to back them in a critical spot.
The Pick: New England +3
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