NFL Betting: Searching For Midseason Value in the 2020 NFL MVP Odds
November 12, 2020 – by Jason Lisk
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are the popular kids (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
We have reached the halfway point of the NFL season, with every team playing at least eight games. So it’s a good time to assess the NFL MVP race, and the associated betting market odds.
As of Thursday, November 12th, prior to the start of Week 10 action, DraftKings Sportsbook had the following top ten for NFL MVP Odds, with Russell Wilson being the most likely implied winner:
Russell Wilson +125Patrick Mahomes +200Aaron Rodgers +350Josh Allen +2200Kyler Murray +2500Tom Brady +3300Ben Roethlisberger +3300Drew Brees +5000Lamar Jackson +5000Alvin Kamara +5000
Wilson, Mahomes, and Rodgers are the clear frontrunners to take home the MVP Award at the halfway point, and the odds are very high that one of those three will win.
But do the oddsmakers have the order correct among those three, based on what factors have driven MVP winners in the past?
Let’s dig into the data to see if we can gain any insights.
A Historical Look at MVP Performance in Various Categories
Going back to 1978, when the NFL went to a 16-game schedule and the passing rules changed, there have been 32 quarterbacks who have been selected for at least a share of the AP NFL MVP Award.
Quarterbacks have won 12 of the last 13 MVP Awards, with the exception being Adrian Peterson’s 2,097 rushing yard season in 2012. Basically, unless another position player does something historically unique and extreme, a quarterback should win the award in today’s NFL.
Let’s look at how winners have ranked in some stat categories, both individual and team:
| Category | 1st | Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 8 | Average Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Wins | 59% | 84% | 100% | 100% | 1.9 |
| Total TDs | 53% | 91% | 97% | 100% | 2.0 |
| ANYA | 53% | 78% | 91% | 100% | 2.3 |
| Passer Rating | 47% | 84% | 88% | 97% | 2.5 |
| Team Points | 59% | 75% | 84% | 97% | 2.7 |
| Pass TD Rate | 59% | 75% | 84% | 91% | 3.0 |
| YPA | 41% | 63% | 78% | 84% | 3.7 |
| Pass Yards | 25% | 50% | 72% | 88% | 4.8 |
| Comp Pct | 22% | 56% | 63% | 75% | 5.8 |
| Int Rate | 16% | 44% | 56% | 63% | 7.5 |
Not surprisingly, NFL MVPs are near the top in lots of categories. But the two where they have consistently ranked the best are Team Wins and Total Touchdowns (Passing + Rushing).
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